国内接下来会发展出新的变种吗?

比如病毒更弱传染性更强的

砖家说Omicron这一支R0到18-22已经耗尽潜力,后续不排除往毒性增强方向变异

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求link

那不就真的是Plague Inc. 的玩法了么 :wulian:

毒性高的传不远吧,除非轻症状期足够长

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这其实是种误解。

这倒是说得没错。不过很遗憾,新冠病毒重症就是在感染后期才出现的。所以严重与否,可能和选择压力关系没那么大。

你感兴趣的话,可以读读这篇文章:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00722-z

The notion that viruses will evolve to be less virulent to spare their hosts is one of the most persistent myths surrounding pathogen evolution. Unlike viral immune escape and transmissibility, which are under strong evolutionary pressure, virulence is typically a by-product, fashioned by complex interactions between factors in both the host and the pathogen. Viruses evolve to maximize their transmissibility and sometimes this may correlate with higher virulence, for example, if high viral loads promote transmission but also increase severity. If so, pathogens may evolve towards higher virulence. If severity manifests late in infection, only after the typical transmission window, as in SARS-CoV-2, but also influenza virus, HIV, hepatitis C virus and many others, it plays a limited role in viral fitness and may not be selected against. Forecasting virulence evolution is a complex task, and the lower severity of Omicron is hardly a good predictor for future variants. The prospect of future VOCs featuring the potentially disastrous combination of the ability to reinfect due to immune escape along with high virulence is unfortunately very real.

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