January has historically been one of the strongest months of the year for gold. Over the past ten years, approximately 70 percent of Januarys have closed in positive territory. This pattern remains consistent when measured across longer horizons of 15, 20, and 25 years. Median January returns over the past 25 years have been close to +3 percent, positioning January as the most reliably bullish month for gold on a seasonal basis.
This is observed seasonality not as a trading anomaly, but as a function of repeatable structural flows in production, inventory, and trading behavior.
First, global gold mining output is seasonally weakest in the first quarter. Q1 production is nearly 100 tonnes lower than Q4.
Second, jewelry manufacturers typically draw down inventories in Q4 and rebuild stock in Q1, generating an additional quarterly swing of roughly 50 tonnes.
Together, these forces create a combined seasonal flow of approximately 150 tonnes.
However, you should have bought in Dec because Dec almost always an up month. January has bigger swings.