目前只load了Full Fare
What does AI say?
United Airlines’ China Expansion: Ambitious Plans Amid Ongoing Challenges
United Airlines’ recently announced massive expansion of service to China for late October 2025 represents an ambitious return to pre-pandemic route networks, but significant questions remain about whether these flights will actually materialize as scheduled.
The Announced Expansion Plan
On March 25, 2025, United Airlines updated its winter 2025-2026 schedule with what has been described as a “gargantuan expansion” to Mainland China and Hong Kong, with routes scheduled to launch in late October 2025 at the start of the IATA winter season[1]. The planned routes include:
- Daily Chicago (ORD) to Beijing (PEK) flights using Boeing 777-200ERs
- Daily Chicago (ORD) to Shanghai (PVG) flights using Boeing 787-8s
- Daily Newark (EWR) to Beijing (PEK) flights using Boeing 777-200ERs
- Daily Newark (EWR) to Hong Kong (HKG) flights using Boeing 777-300ERs
- Daily Newark (EWR) to Shanghai (PVG) flights using Boeing 777-200ERs
- 3x weekly San Francisco (SFO) to Chengdu (CTU) flights using Boeing 787-9s[1]
These flights appear to be resumptions of routes that United operated before the pandemic, and they are already loaded into United’s booking system, although currently only at the highest fare classes[1].
Reasons for Skepticism
Despite United’s ambitious schedule, there are several factors suggesting these plans might face significant challenges:
1. Historical Pattern of Schedule Adjustments
United has previously loaded China flights into its schedule only to scale them back later. In 2023, the airline announced plans to resume several routes to China in October but subsequently reduced operations to just one route: San Francisco to Shanghai[5]. Similarly, in late 2024, United requested to operate only 21 of its 63 weekly frequencies to China for the winter 2024-25 season, seeking waivers for the remaining 42 frequencies[11].
2. Ongoing Market Challenges
The US-China flight market remains well below pre-pandemic levels due to several factors:
- Reduced business travel demand[11]
- Rising geopolitical tensions resulting in capacity restrictions[7]
- The closure of Russian airspace to US airlines, giving Chinese carriers a competitive advantage on flight times[7]
3. Regulatory Considerations
United’s expansion plans face regulatory hurdles:
- Flights between the US and China are slot-controlled, requiring specific permissions
- The Department of Transportation (DOT) dormancy waivers for China flights were previously set to end in late October 2025[1]
- The airline needs to have secured the necessary approvals to operate these routes
4. Current Operations vs. Expansion Plans
As of early 2025, United’s China operations were still limited compared to pre-pandemic levels:
- Daily flights between San Francisco and Beijing
- Daily flights between San Francisco and Shanghai
- Daily flights between Los Angeles and Shanghai (resumed in August 2024 after a four-year hiatus)[7][8]
The jump from these current operations to the extensive network announced for late October 2025 represents a significant expansion that would require substantial resources and market demand.
Is the Expansion Possible?
While the expansion is technically possible, several factors will determine whether these flights actually materialize as scheduled:
-
Russian airspace access: United may be scheduling these flights based on an assumption that Russian airspace restrictions for US carriers will end in the coming months[1].
-
Market demand recovery: The expansion would require a significant improvement in US-China travel demand, which has been slow to recover.
-
Aircraft availability: United needs sufficient widebody aircraft to operate these routes while maintaining its global network.
-
Regulatory approvals: United must secure all necessary permissions from both US and Chinese authorities.
Conclusion
United Airlines’ planned China expansion for late October 2025 represents an ambitious return to pre-pandemic service levels. While the flights are already in the booking system, there are valid reasons to question whether all these routes will launch as scheduled.
The airline has previously added China flights to its schedule only to later scale them back. Additionally, challenges such as Russian airspace restrictions, uncertain demand, and regulatory hurdles remain significant factors that could impact these plans.
Industry observers are taking a cautious approach, with some speculating that at least some of these flights may be placeholders rather than firm commitments[1]. As one commenter noted in response to the announcement: “Placeholders. I don’t realistically expect any of these to operate this winter”[1].
The coming months will reveal whether United is truly committed to this massive China expansion or if schedule adjustments will once again reduce the ambitious plan to a more modest offering.
的