不是退雪球了吗?也没了啊。
你围观 @Aleph 就行啦
不是退雪球了吗?也没了啊。
你围观 @Aleph 就行啦
刚在雪球关注没多久怎么就退了,可恶啊。
这么说吧,我没见他错过 我是个不信神的人,但是他的期权实在是神的可怕了
全是sell put没接到也是赚权利金啊 没他保证金多的跟不了单
合的方面:
不合的方面:
我记得今年早些时候他也说要大幅减少雪球发言,但很快又回来了,这次也不会坚持太久。价值投资/甩手掌柜太无聊了,大佬生活也是很无聊的,得找点乐子耍耍,所以才会做buy write/short put这种长期来看不对的事情,建议他来泥潭耍耍,可以考虑给他发个白金会员
不太明白为什么长期看是不对的事情,卖option相当于保险,应该有风险溢价,期望收益应该是正的吧?
忘了在哪次股东大会,有人问巴菲特是否利用期权入仓出仓,他回答说不会用,要买就直接买,要卖就直接卖。长期buy write/short put,几乎一定会发生踏空或者爆仓惨案,一次性把之前小赚的保费全赔光。这类似于一个martingale游戏:
Originally, martingale referred to a class of betting strategies that was popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins their stake if a coin comes up heads and loses it if the coin comes up tails. The strategy had the gambler double their bet after every loss so that the first win would recover all previous losses plus win a profit equal to the original stake. As the gambler’s wealth and available time jointly approach infinity, their probability of eventually flipping heads approaches 1, which makes the martingale betting strategy seem like a sure thing. However, the exponential growth of the bets eventually bankrupts its users due to finite bankrolls. Stopped Brownian motion, which is a martingale process, can be used to model the trajectory of such games.
不需要关注,他后期几乎是跟着巴菲特走的,大头苹果,有一部分腾讯和茅台。
在雪球风评差是因为几年前的腾讯事件,鼓吹腾讯,价投,重仓,后面腾讯股价(整个中概)低迷,他又说他只有1%的仓位,那件事情之后就很多人不爽他。
前不久sell Nvda put $110(还是多少忘了),其实也违反了他之前鼓吹的所谓价投持有原则。反正大概就是,如果长期看好女大,那为什么不直接买入正股,假如女大明年涨超过那个数,就无法行权买入正股,丢掉了长期的利润,相当于也是看不懂,只想短期搏一下,或者被粉丝驾着,不好意思不买一些。