他说的没错啊，party registration没什么参考价值。路易斯安那至今登记选民D还是比R多好几万，但是D在LA的统治已经结束几十年了。
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有参考价值的是净优势 的 变动，很难理解吗？
这下面一群国内IP真没绷住
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微博robot很多的。。。
第一个评论就很bot
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damnn
If your hindsight is only as far as 2016.
Have you seen 2004?
To suggest your shortsightedness?
NJ has undoubtedly become competitive this cycle, including D losing NJ-9 for presidential vote.
However, voters don’t move in linear way. Otherwise, GA, which was moving leftward in every statewide federal election from 2014 to 2022, would be voting D in 2024.
BTW, NJ-9, a Hispanic-plurality district, does reflect a consistent theme of rightward shift of Hispanic population from 2018 to 2024.
Your piece so far is just lazyness and shortsightedness.
Since you mentioned 2021 Gubernatorial Election,
In 2009, Chris Christie defeated incumbent Jon Corzine
In 1993, Christine Todd Whitman defeated incumbent James Florio
看来ICE不只抓我，心里平衡了
除了骂人你还能给点有实际意义的干货吗？
你要不要再往前看看00年01年？
你拿GA这种连党派登记都没有的传统浅红州想说明什么？我说NJ在持续红移，你说看GA在摇摆。Excuse me？牛头不对马嘴！
你还知道Christie是谁啊？要不我们再看看NH的Sununu和VT的Scott，是不是这俩还是铁红州呢？
NJ共和党不会再有Christie，今年大概率还是Ciattarell出战，以后几年也都会是基准线附近的general democrats v. general republicans。民主党21年赢Ciattarell 3% 85K票（17年是14% 300K票），24年赢川普6% 250K票（16年是14% 550 K票，20年是16% 725K票）。然后从21年/24年至今登记选民党派优势继续缩小了250K/80K，深蓝州都快变摇摆州了也不知道哪来的自信还要接着跳。
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但是抓你就关起来了
抓本地人马上就放了
差别很大 
请问你给了什么干货？
LMAO
Of course I know.
You mean Gov. Ayotte or Former Gov. Sununu
Because you are shortsighted and said that out of 2020 - 2024?
At this pace, you are gonna call Lombardo a Generic R
去闹事的其中一人Robert Menendez Jr，他老爸不就是贪污收贿被FBI逮捕起诉，家里一堆金条，撑了大半年才辞职的联邦参议员Robert Menendez Sr？自己父母都要被抓进去关了，还有心思去联邦机关瞎搅和
Clearly haven’t even closely read what I said.
Let me rephrase it, GA is moving leftward in federal statewide elections every cycle from 2014 to 2022, no matter the national environment.
If you jump to a conclusion like you did, it will suggest GA votes D in 2024. Obviously it didn’t happen.
That’s why I said,
If I was gonna cherry picking like you did, I will pull out NJ Voter Registration Statistics in 2007 and 2008, which showed D Registration jumped from 1.16 M to 1.74 M. A whooping half million increase in just a year.
Does that suggest R is in death bed from that point on? Obviously no.
It’s caused by a competitive presidential primary. NJ has a closed primary system. To get a Democratic primary ballot, one must be registered as affiliated with Democratic Party.
好奇会有arrest record吗