目前TLT买点不错，按照加息周期看，定投到明年下半年应该有不错的回报，且每月固定派息，最重要的是债券类基金，比较稳，可大额。
有什么遗漏和风险？望交流！
包仔继续higher for longer tlt跌到80你受的了吗
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所以定投啊，我94开始建仓的，80继续买啊
债权类比较稳？过去一年你去哪了…
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观望啊
怎么说？
鲍仔和包仔要分清 
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股市爬的很累但bond绝对是oversold，我一直在定投均价大概92 
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tlt is a deflationary recession trade. inflationary recession/stagflation 就是继续跌 买定离手
库仔在乎aapl的股价，劈仔在乎googl的股价，那么鲍仔在乎tlt的股价吗？
看好几个博主推了，感觉还要跌 
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思路是对的，2021那会一直在定投TMV，加息后看都是历史大底
现在加息快到顶部了，明年早晚要降的，无杠杆TLT现在随时可以开始买买买了，很难精准找到底部，但是过两年回过头看来，现在都是大底，再说还能拿3.55%分红
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等底部确认了，可以上tmf
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tail risk就是通胀wave2 继续加息
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建了，上次在94建仓的时候还是arkk， 后来的故事大家都知道了
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继续加，美国经济真的顶得住吗
我觉得有必要把原文复制过来。
英文原文
I believe that long-rates, e.g, 30-year rates, will rise further from here. As such, we remain short bonds through the ownership of swaptions.
The world is a structurally different place than it was. The peace dividend is no more. The long-term deflationary effects of outsourcing production to China are no more. Workers and unions’ bargaining power continues to rise. Strikes abound, with more likely to come as successful walkouts achieve substantial wage gains.
Energy prices are rising rapidly. Not refilling the SPR was a misguided and dangerous mistake. Our strategic assets should never be used to achieve short-term political objectives. Now we must refill the SPR while OPEC and Russia cut production.
The green energy transition is and will remain incalculably expensive. And higher gas prices will raise inflationary expectations. Just ask your average American. They see the prices at the pump and in the grocery store and don’t believe inflation is moderating.
Our national debt is $33 trillion and rising rapidly. There is no sign of fiscal discipline by either party or by the presumptive presidential nominees. And each debt ceiling is an opportunity for our divided government and its most extreme actors to get media attention, and for our nation to threaten default. This is not a good way to recruit the many new buyers we need for our bonds.
The government is selling hundreds of billions of bills, notes and bonds weekly. China and other foreign nations, historically major buyers of our debt, are now selling. And the QT unwind experiment has barely begun. Imagine trying to do a massive IPO where the underwriter, insiders and short sellers are all selling at once, competing to hit every bid on the way down while the analysts downgrade their ratings to ‘Sell.’
Our economy is outperforming expectations. Major infrastructure spending is beginning to contribute to economic growth and the supply of additional debt. Recession predictions have been pushed out beyond 2024.
The long-term inflation rate is not going back to 2% no matter how many times Chairman Powell reiterates it as his target. It was arbitrarily set at 2% after the financial crisis in a world very different from the one we live in now.
I bumped into the CIO of one of the world’s largest fixed income asset managers the other night and asked him how it was going. He looked like he had had a tough day. He greeted me by saying: ‘There are just too many bonds’ — a veritable tsunami of new issuance each week. I asked him what he was going to do about it. He said: ‘The only thing you can do is step away.’
I have been surprised at how low long-term rates are. I think the best explanation is that bond investors thought of 4% as a high rate of interest because rates hadn’t breached 4% for nearly 15 years. When investors saw the ‘opportunity’ to lock in 4% for 30 years, they grabbed it as a ‘once-in-their-career opportunity,’ but today’s world is very different from the one they have experienced up until now.
The long-term inflation rate plus the real rate of interest plus term premium suggests that 5.5% is an appropriate yield for 30-year Treasurys. And query whether 0.5% is a sufficient real long term rate in an increasingly risky world.
And the technicals could cause yields to go even higher, particularly in the short term. We saw the beginnings of that today.
It wasn’t that long ago that a previous generation thought five percent was a low rate of interest for a long-term, fixed-rate obligation.
But I could be wrong. AI might save us.
谷歌翻译：
我相信长期利率，例如30年期利率，将进一步上升。因此，我们仍然通过持有掉期期权来做空债券。
世界在结构上与以前有所不同。和平红利不再存在。将生产外包给中国的长期通货紧缩效应已经不复存在。工人和工会的议价能力持续增强。罢工比比皆是，而且随着成功的罢工带来工资的大幅增长，罢工的可能性也会更大。
能源价格正在迅速上涨。不重新填充 SPR 是一个错误且危险的错误。我们的战略资产决不应该被用来实现短期政治目标。现在我们必须在欧佩克和俄罗斯减产的同时补充战略石油储备。
绿色能源转型的成本现在和将来都难以估量。天然气价格上涨将提高通胀预期。只要问问普通美国人就知道了。他们看到加油站和杂货店的价格，但不相信通货膨胀正在放缓。
我们的国债达 33 万亿美元，并且还在迅速增加。两党或总统候选人都没有任何财政纪律的迹象。每一个债务上限都是我们分裂的政府及其最极端行为者获得媒体关注的机会，也是我们国家威胁违约的机会。这不是招募债券所需的许多新买家的好方法。
政府每周出售数千亿张票据、票据和债券。中国和其他国家历来是我们债务的主要买家，现在却在抛售我们的债务。 QT 展开实验才刚刚开始。想象一下，试图进行大规模首次公开募股，承销商、内部人士和卖空者都同时抛售，在分析师将评级下调至“卖出”的同时，竞相在下跌过程中达到每一个出价。
我们的经济表现超出预期。主要基础设施支出开始为经济增长和额外债务供应做出贡献。经济衰退预测已被推迟到 2024 年之后。
无论鲍威尔主席多少次重申其目标，长期通胀率都不会回到2%。金融危机发生后，在一个与我们现在生活的世界截然不同的世界中，它被武断地定为2%。
有一天晚上，我遇到了全球最大的固定收益资产管理公司之一的首席信息官，并向他询问进展如何。他看起来像是度过了艰难的一天。他跟我打招呼说：“债券太多了”——每周都会出现名副其实的新发行海啸。我问他对此打算做什么。他说：“你唯一能做的就是走开。”
我对长期利率之低感到惊讶。我认为最好的解释是，债券投资者认为 4% 是一个高利率，因为利率已经近 15 年没有突破 4%。当投资者看到30年锁定4%的“机会”时，他们将其视为“职业生涯中一次的机会”，但当今的世界与他们迄今为止所经历的世界截然不同。
长期通胀率加上实际利率加上期限溢价表明，5.5% 是 30 年期国债的合适收益率。并质疑在风险日益增加的世界中 0.5% 的实际长期利率是否足够。
技术面可能会导致收益率进一步走高，尤其是在短期内。今天我们看到了这一切的开始。
不久前，上一代人还认为 5% 的利率对于长期固定利率债务来说是较低的利率。
但我可能是错的。人工智能可能会拯救我们。
Volcker当年加息的时候也没考虑过美国经济啊 当然后面是有一系列政策配合的
我觉得他是那些鼓吹move the goalpost的人之一
"The world is different"这种话其实什么时候说都会因为recency bias,让人觉得有道理
通胀那么多年几乎总是低于2%也没见把目标调成1.5%啊，我觉得fed现在不动是更有道理的。这goal本来就是arbitrary 的，真动了容易滑坡。
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