[Grand Finale] 给各位领导汇报一下，SPCX IPO fidelity 申请200股，拿到50股，今天(07/06) 3:50pm ET的时候股价是$158，设置了一个$160limit sell，瞬间执行。我看好这家公司，但是要等明年SPCX所有股票全部解锁之后，估值稳定了再重新入场。这次解锁的几千块钱在考虑要不要10号买入SK Hynix。最后祝大家发财。
[UPDATE] The Final Confirmed Schedule
- July 6, 2026 (After-Hours): The Invesco QQQ Trust and other index-tracking funds are legally required to buy their shares of SPCX.
- July 7, 2026 (Market Open): SpaceX officially begins trading as an integrated component of the Nasdaq-100 index.
打算在3:50 pm ET 准点下单market sell所有的SPCX，到时候看能不能喝点汤。。
三个预演的inclusion events: VT/VTI’s inclusion on June 18, FTSE Russell’s inclusion on June 26 and MSCI’s inclusion on June 29
The Peak Liquidity Wave (July 2, 2026, from 3:50 PM to 4:00 PM ET)
This is when the actual forced buying by QQQ and other Nasdaq-100 trackers takes place. [1]
- The Mechanism: Index funds utilize MOC (Market-On-Close) orders to target the exact closing price, concentrating billions of dollars of buying volume into the Nasdaq Closing Cross. [1, 2]
- The Impact: Because SpaceX has a remarkably low public float (only about 4% of its shares are currently available to the public), this concentrated surge in demand against limited supply can trigger a localized liquidity squeeze, causing a rapid price spike in the final minutes and seconds before 4:00 PM ET.
An explanation of how FTSE Russell’s inclusion on June 26 and MSCI’s inclusion on June 29 will act as “dress rehearsals” for the QQQ event
| Company (Ticker) [1, 2] | Index & Date | Pre-Inclusion Price Action | Inclusion Day Dynamics | Post-Inclusion Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla (TSLA) | S&P 500 Dec 18, 2020 |
Surged ~70% between announcement and inclusion as speculators piled in. | Record $90B+ volume block executed entirely in the final Closing Cross. | Eased roughly 6% over the next four sessions as passive buying ended. |
| Meta (META) | S&P 500 Dec 20, 2013 |
Gained ~15% in two weeks as index-tracking funds prepared cash. | Concentrated volume at the bell pushed shares to a temporary peak. | Dropped 4% the following morning on heavy short-term profit-taking. |
| Alibaba (BABA) | MSCI Emerging Nov 30, 2015 |
Ran up significantly ahead of its multi-stage index integration. | Heavy institutional volume hit right at the final closing cross. | Faced a multi-week downward trend as artificial buying completely dried up. |
The Magnified SpaceX Risk Factor
The critical difference for SPCX:NASDAQ is the sheer severity of its supply constraint. Tesla and Meta possessed far larger public floats when they were added to their respective indexes. Because SpaceX has tightly restricted its available public shares, the forced buying waves on June 26 and June 29 are highly likely to trigger larger, more volatile price swings than historical precedents suggest.
1. Tesla (TSLA) — S&P 500 Inclusion [1, 2, 3]
- Inclusion Day: Friday, December 18, 2020 [1, 2]
- Previous Day Close (Dec 17): $655.90 (Unadjusted) / $218.63 (Split-adjusted) [1, 2]
- Inclusion Day Peak Price & Time: $695.00 (Unadjusted) / $231.67 (Split-adjusted), reached precisely at 4:00 PM ET during the Nasdaq Closing Cross. A massive $90B+ liquidity wave hit right at the final second, spiking the price to its high of the day. [1, 2, 3]
- Next Day Close (Dec 21): $649.86 (Unadjusted) / $216.62 (Split-adjusted). Passive demand abruptly disappeared, causing the stock to slide 6.5%. [1]
2. Meta Platforms / Facebook (META) — S&P 500 Inclusion [1, 2]
- Inclusion Day: Friday, December 20, 2013 [1]
- Previous Day Close (Dec 19): $54.48 [1]
- Inclusion Day Peak Price & Time: $57.00, hit during an early intraday momentum spike around 10:00 AM ET, though it saw a secondary volume peak near the 4:00 PM ET close to finish the day at $55.12. [1]
- Next Day Close (Dec 23): $57.77. Unlike typical inversions, Meta temporarily bucked the trend over the next 48 hours due to a concurrent follow-on stock offering pricing structure before cooling off. [1, 2]
3. Alibaba (BABA) — MSCI Emerging Markets Phase 1 Inclusion
- Inclusion Day: Monday, November 30, 2015
- Previous Day Close (Nov 27): $84.08
- Inclusion Day Peak Price & Time: $84.34, localized heavily at the 4:00 PM ET Closing Cross on the NYSE as global index trackers reallocated billions into the newly eligible U.S.-listed entity.
- Next Day Close (Dec 1): $82.52. The removal of the forced passive buying pressure caused a prompt 2.1% reversal the following morning.
（我一般不相信time the market的。。。）